Scott Walker is polling zero in a new national poll. The CNN/ORC poll released on Sunday showed him getting less than 1% of the vote. The only reason Scott Walker was polling so high in July (near 20%) was because of his national name recognition for fighting and winning against Wisconsin state liberals. But...after two debates I can't name a single thing he believes in. The grunt conservatives I talk to liked him at first but then found others more attractive. In short, Scott Walker had the ball but lost it when he stood on the debate stage and looked like a frat boy with no clue and no plan. He's nice enough and you would like to hang out with him but...we want to crush our enemies see them driven before us and hear the lamentation of the liberal media.
So first Perry and now Walker (not counting Gilmore/Jindal/other low pol/kid's table debaters).
Who's next?
PREDICTION ALERTs
In order of when they'll drop to nothing in the polls...
1. Ben Carson has had his moment. The whole 'Muslims can't be president comment' has finished him. And like Rand, he's a doctor, I am sure he's smart but really, who cares. We all know that having an IQ above 120 is all that is needed to do anything you want in this world. Ben could be punching above 140 but that is probably true of Hilary as well. As well as every other ivy league communist professor. His being a neurosurgeon actually hurts him. And his 'I'll find out and I can learn' attitude works for all of about 2 months, he can't keep saying 'I'll find out'. The people that like Ben are afraid of Trump. His supporters will be up for grabs for awhile. If Rubio stops sounding like a machine gun they'll probably go to Rubio.
2. Kasich is a bust but he's too proud to say it (and he needs to keep his good name for the post race t.v. appearances). Also, he just got into the Race at the end of July and managed to snag a spot at the grown up debate table with out even trying. But Kasich is like Huckabee, we all know they aren't serious about winning, and after the 2nd debate it's clear Kasich is just like Jeb but someone "I would like to hug" as my, ehem, wife said. I agree. Kasich looks like he'd be a great grandpa but nobody cares what he did in Ohio and he really just wants to fiddle with the knobs of the massive American policy machine.
3. I had to google 'governor of new jersey' to remember Chris Christie. The whole schtick of 'put the camera on the people' and 'nobody cares about your records' and really him jumping up and down at Texas stadium well...Sopranos and Jersey Shore are long over.
4. Huckabee is definitely not going to make it. Great speaker. Another good grandpa but...his failure to get mad at the 2nd debate shows that he isn't serious. The can't-we-all-get-along type attitude he embraced is nice but when you are in a debate and a national race for the presidency the answer is - no we can't. But he is rolling the dice that Iowa will get him the push that he needs. Or at least the attention that he craves. But he doesn't have money and he looks entirely too happy and refreshed to be working hard to win. Still, he is the quintisential social conservative, and he might be willing to highlight that before he exits stage right and keep his campaign in the sun for a little be longer.
5. Rand...Ron's echo (the first t-partier). We all know he is right, But he's a doctor! Not even a real doctor, he's an eye doctor. Making him president would feel like we are putting McCoy's assistant in charge of the Enterprise. Also, sigh, he totally fell for McConnell and the allure of power when he went to washington. Alas he could not bear the ring of power. But his performance at the second half of the second debate was eloquent. I think it was brought out by the pain of him knowing he'll never be president. Also, in the end, I think he is totally content being a senator.
6. Marco Rubio. He is working hard. We like that. He wants to win, he's young. But, he's too young. It's like a rookie quarterback winning the superbowl. It just shouldn't be that easy. Yea, Obama did it but that's easy when you have the media in your hands. He'll get no credibility for being Hispanic. The whole immigration thing is a debacle for him. And I don't really know what he believes in. Like Chris Christie said 'lets be willing to talk about the things we would shut down the government over'. I don't think there is anything he'd be willing to shut down the government over.
7. Jeb Bush. He's got money and he'll keep in it because he has support in Texas to keep him in the 5-6 percent range. But as soon as he bombs in Iowa its back to Florida.
8. Cruz. Sigh. I keep telling everyone I know that he's the real deal but his voice and demeanor makes him hard to fall in love with. Cruz has money so he'll be in it for awhile. He could find a track that accelerates him to high orbit. The window of opportunity will be in December and January when the other candidates are gasping for air time as the debates will be over and the funding for national coverage will have to be paid by either gaffs or from their own pockets.
9. Carly Fiorina. She's ready to go to war. Like Rubio, she got hungry somewhere in life, and knows how to work. There is very little chance she'll implode during the debates, and she'll start to swell with women voters and foreign policy hawks. The Establishment will certainly support her. Look for The Establishment to toss Jeb and promote Carly. And being the only female will keep her unique among the others. She'll stay 2-3 in the polls and won't go far in the primaries. Afterall, in Iowa will they mark the box for Carly over Huck? Unless...Carly comes up with a t-party promise (e.g. flat tax/fair tax/abolish IRS) and promises to tear up Obamacare and deport at least some illegals. BTW any republican that is elected president and doesn't end Obamacare will effectively end the party.
10. Trump. Actually Trump could go out much sooner. Not because of polls but because, well he's old and rich and who really needs this crap? I get the sense that Trump really would rather someone else do what he is doing, was surprised that he is leading in the polls, and might turn Ross Perot on us. His ego is keeping him in check though but he looks like a sprinter in a marathon race. It's hard to imagine his hair after 4 or 8 years in office.
Sunday, September 20, 2015
The Weaknesses of Trump the Tragic Hero.
Trump. Where did this hero come from and how will he fall? The media is enthralled with Trump. They may hate or love him but they can't stop talking about him. First: where did Trump come from? Answer: he is constructed from the economic optimism of Reagan, Yankee (New England Protestant) view of race, and social pragmatic views of contemporary middle class america. He is harnessing the t-party spirit of rebellion to win the primary and then hope for a 50/50 chance to win the general election.
His priority is on winning. This is how he is able to eject the criticism of possible past cronyism of paying politicians for political favors. In that context, as a businessman, in order to win he had to do that. But as the head of the American Country he will seek to win for America and will prioritize America over other ideological priorities.
And so what is America to Trump? It would be a country with massive increase in productivity, wealth, and energy. His vision is based upon the nostalgia of the 80s (aren't we all?). Social issues such as abortion, and planned parenthood are secondary or tertiary behind foreign policy.
His spirit is much like my relatives in communist controlled Poland. During that time they were the best communists. But when Poland became capitalist, my relatives became the best capitalists. He is like this to a large extent but his core crystal spirit is built on succeeding. It is not based on capitalism per se. Rather he knows the secret sauce to make the economy expand and to create wealth. And he can't wait to win so that he can start implementing it.
He sees politicians as hack leaders who don't really know how to get themselves dressed in the morning.
So how will he be defeated? What are his weaknesses? He has 4.
1. There is a 30% chance that someone else will become more attractive. After all, Trump has near universal name recognition and full exposure but is still only at 35% in the polls. Clearly other republicans have attraction to other candidates. The only ones that have a chance beside Trump, are Fiorina, Cruz, and Rubio. Long story short Jeb has the funding but the electorate would rather vote Obama a third term than elect another Bush. Fiorina is good but she is, at her core, a politician, unless she can propose something radical (e.g. abolish the IRS) then she'll likely be constrained to 15%-20%. Rubio is the real wild card, if he can rediscover his t-party roots he could be a major threat. But chances are the immigration hand he played is all jacked up (amnesty!) and people just can't swallow it now. If Cruz had a deeper voice he'd be the favorite. Kind of silly I know but so is life.
2. People tire of the weekly name calling. I know I am already getting tired of it. When I think that I might have to endure it for four or eight years I think I'll just scream "make it stop! make it stop!" This is one area where the Media has control that it hasn't yet (but soon will) realize. It isn't so much what trump says its that we have to constantly hear about it. Conservatives love that the lib media (Megyn K included) are enraged that they haven't had Trump grovelling before some victim. They are supposed to have that kind of power. Some candidate says something 'offensive' the media then shames that candidate into begging forgiveness. The conservative grass roots get it. The problem is that even though conservatives are fine with the media having their heads explode at not getting a 'cowed' Trump...they don't know that we will get sick of the drama.
PREDICTION ALERT: Trump will remain in the lead into January of 2016 and then the Political Press will start to say "Well, I guess this is the kind of thing we could be seeing from a President Trump. What if he insults world leaders? What if they go to war over something he said?" This could lose him the general election.
3. The Establishment (Elite/Yankee/Protestants) will break the rules. Keep in mind that The Establishment has never ever lost. They didn't lose the American Revolution, They didn't lose the Civil War. They did convert to socialism after America lost in Vietnam but they didn't lose their power. Reagan was a minor bump, like an engine that overheated they brought it quickly under control with George Bush Senior. How could the establishment break the rules?
PREDICTION ALERT:
If Trump wins the primary election and the other nominee for the democrats (Hillary or Biden or Omalley) The Establishment could withdraw their financial and organizational support from Trump. The Establishment would, by far, rather see Hilary win than Trump. Hilary is moving around the monopoly board, Trump wants to play a different game. In March of 2016 if Trump wins the early primaries look for Trump to start complaining about lack of financial support and organizational support from the RNC.
4. He backs away from being Trump. Anything that tempers his policy or seems like he won't repeal Obamacare or stop illegal immigration. This isn't likely. He is very weak on same sex marriage. His use of the phrase "Law of the land" to justify the jailing of Wendy Davis is being overlooked for now. Huckabee could launch broadsides into Trump if he wanted but he doesn't. So could Cruz, but Donald pretty much owns Cruz right now. Cruz should have kept his distance and moved into Donald with Social issues but too late now. The base is willing to overlook social issues because it knows that if Donald really is serious about deporting illegal immigrants the 500 year arc of social history will have been broken. And then anything is possible.
His priority is on winning. This is how he is able to eject the criticism of possible past cronyism of paying politicians for political favors. In that context, as a businessman, in order to win he had to do that. But as the head of the American Country he will seek to win for America and will prioritize America over other ideological priorities.
And so what is America to Trump? It would be a country with massive increase in productivity, wealth, and energy. His vision is based upon the nostalgia of the 80s (aren't we all?). Social issues such as abortion, and planned parenthood are secondary or tertiary behind foreign policy.
His spirit is much like my relatives in communist controlled Poland. During that time they were the best communists. But when Poland became capitalist, my relatives became the best capitalists. He is like this to a large extent but his core crystal spirit is built on succeeding. It is not based on capitalism per se. Rather he knows the secret sauce to make the economy expand and to create wealth. And he can't wait to win so that he can start implementing it.
He sees politicians as hack leaders who don't really know how to get themselves dressed in the morning.
So how will he be defeated? What are his weaknesses? He has 4.
1. There is a 30% chance that someone else will become more attractive. After all, Trump has near universal name recognition and full exposure but is still only at 35% in the polls. Clearly other republicans have attraction to other candidates. The only ones that have a chance beside Trump, are Fiorina, Cruz, and Rubio. Long story short Jeb has the funding but the electorate would rather vote Obama a third term than elect another Bush. Fiorina is good but she is, at her core, a politician, unless she can propose something radical (e.g. abolish the IRS) then she'll likely be constrained to 15%-20%. Rubio is the real wild card, if he can rediscover his t-party roots he could be a major threat. But chances are the immigration hand he played is all jacked up (amnesty!) and people just can't swallow it now. If Cruz had a deeper voice he'd be the favorite. Kind of silly I know but so is life.
2. People tire of the weekly name calling. I know I am already getting tired of it. When I think that I might have to endure it for four or eight years I think I'll just scream "make it stop! make it stop!" This is one area where the Media has control that it hasn't yet (but soon will) realize. It isn't so much what trump says its that we have to constantly hear about it. Conservatives love that the lib media (Megyn K included) are enraged that they haven't had Trump grovelling before some victim. They are supposed to have that kind of power. Some candidate says something 'offensive' the media then shames that candidate into begging forgiveness. The conservative grass roots get it. The problem is that even though conservatives are fine with the media having their heads explode at not getting a 'cowed' Trump...they don't know that we will get sick of the drama.
PREDICTION ALERT: Trump will remain in the lead into January of 2016 and then the Political Press will start to say "Well, I guess this is the kind of thing we could be seeing from a President Trump. What if he insults world leaders? What if they go to war over something he said?" This could lose him the general election.
3. The Establishment (Elite/Yankee/Protestants) will break the rules. Keep in mind that The Establishment has never ever lost. They didn't lose the American Revolution, They didn't lose the Civil War. They did convert to socialism after America lost in Vietnam but they didn't lose their power. Reagan was a minor bump, like an engine that overheated they brought it quickly under control with George Bush Senior. How could the establishment break the rules?
PREDICTION ALERT:
If Trump wins the primary election and the other nominee for the democrats (Hillary or Biden or Omalley) The Establishment could withdraw their financial and organizational support from Trump. The Establishment would, by far, rather see Hilary win than Trump. Hilary is moving around the monopoly board, Trump wants to play a different game. In March of 2016 if Trump wins the early primaries look for Trump to start complaining about lack of financial support and organizational support from the RNC.
4. He backs away from being Trump. Anything that tempers his policy or seems like he won't repeal Obamacare or stop illegal immigration. This isn't likely. He is very weak on same sex marriage. His use of the phrase "Law of the land" to justify the jailing of Wendy Davis is being overlooked for now. Huckabee could launch broadsides into Trump if he wanted but he doesn't. So could Cruz, but Donald pretty much owns Cruz right now. Cruz should have kept his distance and moved into Donald with Social issues but too late now. The base is willing to overlook social issues because it knows that if Donald really is serious about deporting illegal immigrants the 500 year arc of social history will have been broken. And then anything is possible.
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