Trump. Where did this hero come from and how will he fall? The media is enthralled with Trump. They may hate or love him but they can't stop talking about him. First: where did Trump come from? Answer: he is constructed from the economic optimism of Reagan, Yankee (New England Protestant) view of race, and social pragmatic views of contemporary middle class america. He is harnessing the t-party spirit of rebellion to win the primary and then hope for a 50/50 chance to win the general election.
His priority is on winning. This is how he is able to eject the criticism of possible past cronyism of paying politicians for political favors. In that context, as a businessman, in order to win he had to do that. But as the head of the American Country he will seek to win for America and will prioritize America over other ideological priorities.
And so what is America to Trump? It would be a country with massive increase in productivity, wealth, and energy. His vision is based upon the nostalgia of the 80s (aren't we all?). Social issues such as abortion, and planned parenthood are secondary or tertiary behind foreign policy.
His spirit is much like my relatives in communist controlled Poland. During that time they were the best communists. But when Poland became capitalist, my relatives became the best capitalists. He is like this to a large extent but his core crystal spirit is built on succeeding. It is not based on capitalism per se. Rather he knows the secret sauce to make the economy expand and to create wealth. And he can't wait to win so that he can start implementing it.
He sees politicians as hack leaders who don't really know how to get themselves dressed in the morning.
So how will he be defeated? What are his weaknesses? He has 4.
1. There is a 30% chance that someone else will become more attractive. After all, Trump has near universal name recognition and full exposure but is still only at 35% in the polls. Clearly other republicans have attraction to other candidates. The only ones that have a chance beside Trump, are Fiorina, Cruz, and Rubio. Long story short Jeb has the funding but the electorate would rather vote Obama a third term than elect another Bush. Fiorina is good but she is, at her core, a politician, unless she can propose something radical (e.g. abolish the IRS) then she'll likely be constrained to 15%-20%. Rubio is the real wild card, if he can rediscover his t-party roots he could be a major threat. But chances are the immigration hand he played is all jacked up (amnesty!) and people just can't swallow it now. If Cruz had a deeper voice he'd be the favorite. Kind of silly I know but so is life.
2. People tire of the weekly name calling. I know I am already getting tired of it. When I think that I might have to endure it for four or eight years I think I'll just scream "make it stop! make it stop!" This is one area where the Media has control that it hasn't yet (but soon will) realize. It isn't so much what trump says its that we have to constantly hear about it. Conservatives love that the lib media (Megyn K included) are enraged that they haven't had Trump grovelling before some victim. They are supposed to have that kind of power. Some candidate says something 'offensive' the media then shames that candidate into begging forgiveness. The conservative grass roots get it. The problem is that even though conservatives are fine with the media having their heads explode at not getting a 'cowed' Trump...they don't know that we will get sick of the drama.
PREDICTION ALERT: Trump will remain in the lead into January of 2016 and then the Political Press will start to say "Well, I guess this is the kind of thing we could be seeing from a President Trump. What if he insults world leaders? What if they go to war over something he said?" This could lose him the general election.
3. The Establishment (Elite/Yankee/Protestants) will break the rules. Keep in mind that The Establishment has never ever lost. They didn't lose the American Revolution, They didn't lose the Civil War. They did convert to socialism after America lost in Vietnam but they didn't lose their power. Reagan was a minor bump, like an engine that overheated they brought it quickly under control with George Bush Senior. How could the establishment break the rules?
PREDICTION ALERT:
If Trump wins the primary election and the other nominee for the democrats (Hillary or Biden or Omalley) The Establishment could withdraw their financial and organizational support from Trump. The Establishment would, by far, rather see Hilary win than Trump. Hilary is moving around the monopoly board, Trump wants to play a different game. In March of 2016 if Trump wins the early primaries look for Trump to start complaining about lack of financial support and organizational support from the RNC.
4. He backs away from being Trump. Anything that tempers his policy or seems like he won't repeal Obamacare or stop illegal immigration. This isn't likely. He is very weak on same sex marriage. His use of the phrase "Law of the land" to justify the jailing of Wendy Davis is being overlooked for now. Huckabee could launch broadsides into Trump if he wanted but he doesn't. So could Cruz, but Donald pretty much owns Cruz right now. Cruz should have kept his distance and moved into Donald with Social issues but too late now. The base is willing to overlook social issues because it knows that if Donald really is serious about deporting illegal immigrants the 500 year arc of social history will have been broken. And then anything is possible.
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